Wednesday, October 14, 2015

An election prediction

The patterns are starting to be clear, the polls are showing that the Conservative Party and the Liberals are neck and neck and it looks as if the Liberals  will win a minority government and may be only a few seats away from winning a majority government. 

in my mind this is depressing news for the progressives in Canada. If the trend continues either Harper or Trudeau will win and there is little or no difference in policy between the two parties. The cons campaign right and govern extreme right, while the Liberals campaign left and govern right. So either way, progressives lose.

There has been and will continue to be a flurry of last minute attempts to sway the undecided, but fear appears to have won the hearts of many of us. 

When people are afraid, or made to be afraid, or not paying attention, they want to/can blame others for their problems (Muslims, women, ISIS, or the big bad wolf) they vote not for change but for the status quo or the status quo they remember, like the liberals (who have governed Canada for many, many years).  

Many Canadians are not paying attention, like my friend who, at lunch the other day said, i am voting for the Conservatives because they support freedom and are honest. 

The rest of us were shocked, and we broke one of our long-standing rules about talking about politics. After an hour and a half of pointing out all the lies and attacks on freedoms this government has done in the last ten years, my friend said he would reconsider his vote. 

I doubt that he will, but if he does, he will vote Liberal, because he is usde to them being in government, and he wants to believes the government is truthful and would not lie. So when presented with a government advertising that is not truthful, he, like many of Canadians, believe the government.

So although I hope to be proven wrong, I predict a right wing win with a minority government. 

I am decidedly upset with they way this election has shown how easily we can be persuaded by fear and hate, rather than be guided by understanding and respect.

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