Confirmation Bias refers to a tendency to look out only for information which supports our earlier beliefs or opinions about anything. Hindsight bias, also known as the knew-it-all-along phenomenon or creeping determinism, refers to the common tendency for people to perceive events that have already occurred as having been more predictable than they actually were before the events took place. So what exactly causes this bias to happen?
Researchers suggest that three key variables interact to contribute to this tendency to see things as more predictable than they really are.
First, people tend to distort or even misremember their earlier predictions about an event. As we look back on our earlier predictions, we tend to believe that we really did know the answer all along.
Second, people have a tendency to view events as inevitable. When assessing something that has happened, we tend to assume that it was something that was simply bound to occur.
Finally, people also tend to assume that they could have foreseen certain events.
When all three of these factors occur readily in a situation, the hindsight bias is more likely to occur. When a movie reaches its end and we discover who the killer really was, we might look back on our memory of the film and misremember our initial impressions of the guilty character. We might also look at all the situations and secondary characters and believe that given these variables, it was clear what was going to happen. You might walk away from the film thinking that you knew it all along, but the reality is that you probably didn't.
So, is there anything that you can do to counteract the hindsight bias?
Researchers Roese and Vohs suggest that one way to counteract this bias is to consider things that might have happened but didn't. By mentally reviewing potential outcomes, people might gain a more balanced view of what really happened.
Given the above, some of us still believe that only in hindsight, will the miracles become obvious, that we will see we were guided, and we knew there was order all along?
"Otherwise," as I once said, a long, long time ago, "it would all be too easy...
Researchers suggest that three key variables interact to contribute to this tendency to see things as more predictable than they really are.
First, people tend to distort or even misremember their earlier predictions about an event. As we look back on our earlier predictions, we tend to believe that we really did know the answer all along.
Second, people have a tendency to view events as inevitable. When assessing something that has happened, we tend to assume that it was something that was simply bound to occur.
Finally, people also tend to assume that they could have foreseen certain events.
When all three of these factors occur readily in a situation, the hindsight bias is more likely to occur. When a movie reaches its end and we discover who the killer really was, we might look back on our memory of the film and misremember our initial impressions of the guilty character. We might also look at all the situations and secondary characters and believe that given these variables, it was clear what was going to happen. You might walk away from the film thinking that you knew it all along, but the reality is that you probably didn't.
So, is there anything that you can do to counteract the hindsight bias?
Researchers Roese and Vohs suggest that one way to counteract this bias is to consider things that might have happened but didn't. By mentally reviewing potential outcomes, people might gain a more balanced view of what really happened.
Given the above, some of us still believe that only in hindsight, will the miracles become obvious, that we will see we were guided, and we knew there was order all along?
"Otherwise," as I once said, a long, long time ago, "it would all be too easy...
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