Wednesday, April 4, 2012

40% of world's wealth owned by 1% of population

Two "old" news story that says we may yet learn from history. CBC News on Tuesday, December 5, 2006, published this article.

In 2011, the 1% movement began in Vancouver. Concidence or another Canadian movement taking the world by storm. So this is interesting given that we are just paying our taxes for another year.
The richest one per cent of the world's population owns 40 per cent of the total household wealth, while the bottom half of the world makes do with barely one per cent, according to a research report released Tuesday.

The study, which further underlined the continuing disparity between rich and poor, is by the Helsinki-based World Institute for Development Economics Research, part of the United Nations University.
'Income inequality has been rising for the past 20 to 25 years and we think that is true for inequality in the distribution of wealth.'-Canadian economist James Davies, an author of the report
It took more than $500,000 US to be among the richest one per cent of adults in the world, according to the report. The richest 10 per cent of adults needed $61,000 US in assets.

In contrast, 50 per cent of adults owned barely one per cent of the household wealth. Wealth was defined as the value of physical and financial assets minus debts. The study differentiates between wealth and income. The authors note that "many people in high-income countries — somewhat paradoxically — are among the poorest people in the world in terms of household wealth" because they have large debts.

The bulk of the wealthiest adults (almost 90 per cent) are concentrated in North America, Europe and Japan, the researchers said. For example, North America accounts for only six per cent of adults, but held 34 per cent of the globe's household wealth.

"Income inequality has been rising for the past 20 to 25 years, and we think that is true for inequality in the distribution of wealth," said James Davies, one of the report's authors and a professor of economics at the University of Western Ontario in London.

"There is a whole group of problems in developing countries that make it difficult for people to build up assets, which are important, since life is so precarious," Davies said.

Having assets worth just above $2,200 US would be enough to put an adult into the top half of the world's wealth distribution.

Canadians averaged $70,916 US in assets

Canada's net worth per capita came in at $70,916 US, putting it just ahead of Denmark.
Average net worth in the United States amounted to $143,867 per person in 2000, while it reached $180,837 in Japan.

At the bottom end of the scale were Ethiopia with per-capita wealth of $193 and Congo at $180.

Global household wealth amounted to $125 trillion in 2000, roughly three times the value of total global production, or $20,500 per person.  For more information on this story check out:

The second "old" news story is about Canada's super-rich, Last Updated March 6, 2008

If it's true that "money talks," then the bank accounts of Canada's wealthiest citizens are doing a lot of blabbing these days.

First, let's define wealthy. Are millionaires automatically wealthy? At one time, a million really meant something. But then real estate values started exploding and stock markets began soaring, and before you could say "über-rich," the ranks of Canadian millionaires began to swell.

Consultants Cap Gemini Ernst & Young estimated there were 315,000 millionaires in Canada at the start of 2001. In that survey, "millionaire" meant $1 million in investable assets, excluding real estate. The consulting firm forecast that the number of Canadian millionaires would grow to 900,000 by the year 2010.

The world's richest (billions of U.S. dollars)
1. Warren Buffet (investments) 62.0
2. Carlos Slim Helu (telecom) 60.0
3. Bill Gates (Microsoft) 58.0
4. Lakshmi Mittal (steel) 45.0
5. Mukesh Ambani (petrochemicals) 43.0
6. Anil Ambani (diversified) 42.0
7. Ingvar Kamprad + family (Ikea) 31.0
8. KP Singh (real estate) 30.0
9. Oleg Deripaska (aluminum) 28.0
10. Karl Albrecht (retailing) 27.0
Source: Forbes (March 2008)
Impressive numbers. But super-rich? In most cases, they aren't even close. No, we're talking about the tiny sliver at the very top of the money pile — the ultra-high net worth club whose members are referred to as billionaires.

Canada has 2 per cent of world's billionaires

Financial publications, which love to track the rise and fall of the super-rich, agree that the money gods have been especially generous towards this small but affluent group.

In its annual tracking of billionaires, Forbes magazine's writers and researchers declared that 25 Canadians had cracked the billionaire threshold by early 2008 (in U.S. dollars, too).

That's 25 out of 1,125 billionaires worldwide. The world's billionaires had a total net worth of $4.4 trillion US. That's more than Germany's GDP. Remember, we're talking about just 1,125 people here. Canada's share of the billionaire booty: $88.4 billion US.

Canadian Business magazine does its own annual tracking of the richest 100 Canadians. The two lists agree that the richest of the rich Canadians are the members of the Thomson family. Forbes says number two is grocery magnate Galen Weston and his family, and the Irving clan from New Brunswick is third. But Canadian Business magazine says recent rises in the value of Rogers Communications shares have vaulted Ted Rogers Jr. into second place, with a net worth of $7.6 billion.

The Thomson family's wealth simply boggles. Canadian Business pegs the Thomson fortune at $25.4 billion. Forbes magazine put it at $18.9 billion US in February 2008 - good enough for 31st place in the world. That's only $43.1 billion US behind Warren Buffett. (Net worth: $62 billion US, depending on the value of Berkshire Hathaway shares).

Money made in everything from food to circus

What can we say about Canada's billionaires? Well, they're a mixed bag. Some come from very old money; some are very new — like the co-CEOs of Research in Motion. Most of them still live in Canada. Most are in their later years, but seven are in their 40s, and steel baron Alexander Shnaider is just 39.

On the Forbes list, the Canadian billionaires are all male. But Canadian Business singles out Indigo Books & Music CEO Heather Reisman. Together with her husband, Onex Corp.'s Gerry Schwartz, the power couple is worth $1.57 billion.

Canada's richest (billions of Cdn dollars)
1. The Thomson family (media)$25.4
2. Ted Rogers Jr. (media)$7.6
3. Galen Weston (groceries)$7.3
4. Paul Desmarais Sr. (Power Corp.)$5.6
5. Irving family (diversified)$5.3
6. Jimmy Pattison (diversified)$4.52
7.Jeff Skoll (eBay)$4.48
8. Mike Lazaridis (RIM)$4.36
9. Jim Balsillie (RIM)$4.09
10. Barry Sherman (Apotex)$3.61
Source: Canadian Business (Dec. 2007)
They hail from all regions of the country. Some are big-money families; others are bachelors. And they made their money in vastly different ways. Drugs (the legal kind), media, oil and gas, food retailing, printing, money management, construction, the BlackBerry and the circus.

But the roots of some fortunes may surprise. John MacBain's fortune came one classified ad a time. MacBain is the controlling interest behind Trader Classified Media, which publishes many Auto Trader titles and hundreds of other similar publications around the world. He began it all with the purchase of Auto Hebdo in 1987. Net worth: $1.24 billion, according to Canadian Business.

Then there's Guy Laliberté. You may not have heard of Guy. But you've heard of his company. Back in 1984, it was just Laliberté and a group of street performers in Quebec. Now it's 10 dazzling companies of acrobats and artists showcasing their talents around the world. The collective name for the enterprise that Laliberté now owns: Cirque du Soleil. His almost total ownership has given him a net worth of $1.18 billion, Canadian Business says. Forbes puts his net worth even higher, at $1.7 billion US.

A final note about all this talk of money. Unlike fictional billionaires like Scrooge McDuck, the super-rich do not keep most of their fortune in cash. Their money is usually tied up in shares of the companies they started, so their fortunes rise and fall with the market. How well Canada's billionaires fare in the years to come may depend more on investor sentiment than their own business acumen. Not that this crowd is terribly short on that.

That doesn't mean that the rich don't have things to worry about. A survey by Sensus Research of 165 Canadians worth more than $10 million showed that almost a quarter are worried that lazy children or grandchildren will squander the family fortune. About a third of them worry they won't be able to maintain their lifestyle.
It's a tough world out there.

Sources: Canadian Business, Forbes, B.C. Securities Commission, Cap Gemini Ernst & Young, Sensus Research

Tuesday, April 3, 2012

Depression May Be Precursor to Dementia

A friend of mine was talking to me about dementia and his fear that one of his parents was suffering from this and we talked about what he could do to help, all I could do was listen because I knew he was aware of the resources available to him and his family. Listening to others and hearing their story and pain sometimes helps them. I had to resist very strongly the guy approach which is to offer solutions and solve the problem, what my friend needed at the time was someone just to listen.
A while after that conversation I came upon an interesting article that appeared in PsychCentral about the issues of depression and dementia. The article was written by Janice Wood Associate News Editor and reviewed by John M. Grohol, Psy.D. on November 11, 2011

Depression is one of the most common mental disorders in the elderly, but little is known about the underlying biology of its development in older adults.

The researchers from the University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA) used a brain scan to assess the levels of amyloid plaques and tau tangles in older adults with major depressive disorder, also known as clinical depression.

Previous research has suggested that plaque and tangle deposits in the brain — hallmarks of Alzheimer’s disease and many dementias — are associated not only with memory loss but also with mild symptoms of depression and anxiety in middle-aged and older individuals.

The team wanted to see what the brain-scanning technique would find in older people with depression.

The researchers created a chemical marker called FDDNP that binds to both plaque and tangle deposits, which can then be viewed through a positron emission tomography (PET) brain scan, providing a “window into the brain.” Using this method, researchers are able to pinpoint where in the brain these abnormal protein deposits are accumulating.

The scientists compared the FDDNP brain scans of 20 older adults between the ages of 60 to 82 who had been diagnosed with depression with the scans of 19 healthy people of similar age, education and gender.

They found that in patients with depression, FDDNP binding was significantly higher throughout the brain and in critical brain regions. The critical brain regions included the posterior cingulate and lateral temporal areas, which are involved in decision-making, complex reasoning, memory and emotions.

“This is the first study using FDDNP to assess the abnormal protein levels in brains of older adults with severe depression,” said the study’s senior author, Dr. Gary Small, UCLA’s Parlow-Solomon Professor on Aging and a professor of psychiatry.

“The findings suggest that the higher protein load in critical brain regions may contribute to the development of severe depression in late life.”

Researchers also found that similar protein deposit patterns in the lateral temporal and posterior cingulate areas in patients were associated with different clinical symptoms. Some patients demonstrated indicators of depression only, while others also displayed symptoms of mild cognitive impairment.

Dr. Small noted that previous research has shown that depression may be a risk factor for or a precursor to memory loss, such as mild cognitive impairment, which can later lead to dementia.

“We may find that depression in the elderly may be an initial manifestation of progressive neurodegenerative disease,” said the study’s first author, Dr. Anand Kumar, the Lizzie Gilman Professor and department head of psychiatry at the University of Illinois at Chicago.

“Brain scans using FDDNP allow us to take a closer look at the different types of protein deposits and track them to see how clinical symptoms develop.”

According to Kumar and Small, more followup over time is needed to evaluate the significance of the outcomes of the study’s patient subgroups. Such research will help further assess if depression later in life might be a precursor to mild cognitive impairment and dementia.

The researchers also noted that FDDNP used with PET may also be helpful in identifying new treatments and in tracking the effectiveness of current antidepressant therapy and medications designed to help reduce abnormal protein buildup in the brain.

The team is planning larger studies involving investigators that will address the impact of the genetic marker APOE-4, which is a risk factor for dementia and Alzheimer’s disease.

The study was published in the November issue of the Archives of General Psychiatry.

Source: Semel Institute for Neuroscience and Human Behavior, UCLA

Monday, April 2, 2012

Did you hear about the oil spill near ISKUt river on Nov 16?

Did you see this in the Main Stream Media in the lowermainland, I did not and wonder why this information is apparently seen as non-news by us in the south of BC. Your guesses are as good as mine.

FUEL SPILL NEAR THE ISKUT RIVER - NORTHWEST FUELS written by Rivers Without Borders and posted in the Terrace Daily online
Highlights Spill Risks to Pacific Salmon

Salmon and hydrocarbons don’t mix. That’s common sense, but with pipelines, mines, hydroelectric projects, new roads and increased industrial traffic proposed for northwest British Columbia, there’s a growing risk of industrial accidents and oil and gas spills in the region. A recent fuel spill near the Iskut River highlights that risk. The spill also reveals that both provincial and federal governments have gutted their environmental protection agencies, and are not adequately prepared to meet the growing threat to water quality and salmon habitat.

The spill occurred on November 16, 2011. There was no government or industry press release about the spill, and Rivers Without Borders only recently heard about it from people working in the region. Subsequent calls to government officials and other interested parties revealed more details. Here’s what happened: a loaded fuel truck and trailer bound for AltaGas’ Forrest Kerr hydroelectric project, west of Bob Quinn, lost control on a steep hill and crashed against a rock wall at kilometer 12 on the Eskay Creek road, spilling 9,300 litres of winter diesel near the Iskut River. Chemicals such as benzene, toluene, xylene, and ethylbenzene are hazardous components of diesel spills. Investigators at the scene believe the diesel drained into cracks in the rock, possibly straight into groundwater. No fuel has been recovered.

The spill is currently “under investigation”. In B.C., that’s not reassuring. Even though there are no immediate threats to human health, and hydrocarbons have not yet been detected in water, here are four things revealed by an investigation into the Forrest Kerr fuel spill, which should concern everyone in the region:

1) The B.C. Government Doesn’t Have Your Back - Due to provincial government cutbacks, there’s only one Environmental Emergency Response Officer, based in Smithers, for the entire region of northwest BC. That means that from Atlin to Haida Gwaii to Burns Lake – an enormous area – one single person is tasked with responding to spills on behalf of the province. Given the amount of proposed new industrial projects in northwest BC, unless the province hired Superman, they didn’t hire enough people to do the job.
2) The Federal Government Doesn’t Have Your Back – When it comes to spills of hazardous materials such as oil and gas, Environment Canada is responsible for handing out fines, prosecuting environmental violations, and enforcing the Canadian Environmental Protection Act. This is the same ministry that just cut 60 scientists from its staff. A Globe and Mail article pointed out that in a recent seven year stretch, across the entire country, Environment Canada nailed down only 32 convictions, less than five a year. Either Canada is a place where industrial accidents, and environmental violations, almost never happen, or the government is willfully blind and not interested in looking.
3) In Northwest B.C., The Liability Is Likely To Fall On The Little Guy - Potential liability for a spill like the Forrest Kerr fuel spill falls on the company, in this case Northwest Fuels, that had “care and control” of the fuel at the time of the accident. That’s the ‘polluter pays’ principle, and it sounds good in theory. In practice, it means a local contractor, based in Terrace, is on the hook for hiring a private consulting company to do environmental monitoring, and for potential clean up and remediation costs. At the same time, the large Calgary based corporation, AltaGas, which contracted Northwest Fuels to do the job, bears no legal responsibility for the spill. Future accidents – and there will be future accidents – will likely have similar outcomes: the financial burden of a cleanup will fall on small business owners in northwest British Columbia, not on the corporations that will construct and operate the giant mines and hydroelectric projects.

4) Wild Pacific Salmon Are In Danger – Mines, pipelines, and other industrial projects are planned for northwest BC, and the Forrest Kerr fuel spill is likely just the start of things to come. If these projects go ahead, watersheds with vast roadless areas, clean water, and pristine salmon habitat will be intercut with new roads and industrial infrastructure. For salmon, it’s the Death of a Thousand Cuts.

The degradation of salmon habitat in rivers like the Unuk, Iskut, and Stikine will be inevitable, and the threat of water contamination from a fuel spill will always be there. Norm Fallows, the BC Environmental Emergency Response Officer based in Smithers, said that in northeast BC, which has been hammered by gas drilling activity, there’s “a spill every day,” and, “anything less then 5,000 litres is considered not worth checking out”. A similar situation may be coming to the northwest corner of the province, and that would be a real shame: salmon can’t handle swallowing a fuel spill a day.

Sunday, April 1, 2012

Stephen Harper's 1997 speech

April Fools Day and this is a good time to see take a look at Harpers views and see how much he has fooled the Canadian people.

Harper has not changed his views very much,  this speech with some areas highlighted should help  understand his vision.

OTTAWA — The text from a speech made by Stephen Harper, then vice-president of the National Citizens Coalition, to a June 1997 Montreal meeting of the Council for National Policy, a right-wing U.S. think tank, and taken from the council's website:

Ladies and gentlemen, let me begin by giving you a big welcome to Canada. Let's start up with a compliment. You're here from the second greatest nation on earth. But seriously, your country, and particularly your conservative movement, is a light and an inspiration to people in this country and across the world.

Now, having given you a compliment, let me also give you an insult. I was asked to speak about Canadian politics. It may not be true, but it's legendary that if you're like all Americans, you know almost nothing except for your own country. Which makes you probably knowledgeable about one more country than most Canadians.

But in any case, my speech will make that assumption. I'll talk fairly basic stuff. If it seems pedestrian to some of you who do know a lot about Canada, I apologize.

I'm going to look at three things. First of all, just some basic facts about Canada that are relevant to my talk, facts about the country and its political system, its civics. Second, I want to take a look at the party system that's developed in Canada from a conventional left/right, or liberal/conservative perspective. The third thing I'm going to do is look at the political system again, because it can't be looked at in this country simply from the conventional perspective.

First, facts about Canada. Canada is a Northern European welfare state in the worst sense of the term, and very proud of it. Canadians make no connection between the fact that they are a Northern European welfare state and the fact that we have very low economic growth, a standard of living substantially lower than yours, a massive brain drain of young professionals to your country, and double the unemployment rate of the United States.

In terms of the unemployed, of which we have over a million-and-a-half, don't feel particularly bad for many of these people. They don't feel bad about it themselves, as long as they're receiving generous social assistance and unemployment insurance.

That is beginning to change. There have been some significant changes in our fiscal policies and our social welfare policies in the last three or four years. But nevertheless, they're still very generous compared to your country.

Let me just make a comment on language, which is so important in this country. I want to disabuse you of misimpressions you may have. If you've read any of the official propagandas, you've come over the border and entered a bilingual country. In this particular city, Montreal, you may well get that impression. But this city is extremely atypical of this country.

While it is a French-speaking city -- largely -- it has an enormous English-speaking minority and a large number of what are called ethnics: they who are largely immigrant communities, but who politically and culturally tend to identify with the English community.

This is unusual, because the rest of the province of Quebec is, by and large, almost entirely French-speaking. The English minority present here in Montreal is quite exceptional.

Furthermore, the fact that this province is largely French-speaking, except for Montreal, is quite exceptional with regard to the rest of the country. Outside of Quebec, the total population of francophones, depending on how you measure it, is only three to five per cent of the population. The rest of Canada is English speaking.

Even more important, the French-speaking people outside of Quebec live almost exclusively in the adjacent areas, in northern New Brunswick and in Eastern Ontario.

The rest of Canada is almost entirely English speaking. Where I come from, Western Canada, the population of francophones ranges around one to two per cent in some cases. So it's basically an English-speaking country, just as English-speaking as, I would guess, the northern part of the United States.

But the important point is that Canada is not a bilingual country. It is a country with two languages. And there is a big difference.

As you may know, historically and especially presently, there's been a lot of political tension between these two major language groups, and between Quebec and the rest of Canada.

Let me take a moment for a humorous story. Now, I tell this with some trepidation, knowing that this is a largely Christian organization.

The National Citizens Coalition, by the way, is not. We're on the sort of libertarian side of the conservative spectrum. So I tell this joke with a little bit of trepidation. But nevertheless, this joke works with Canadian audiences of any kind, anywhere in Canada, both official languages, any kind of audience.

It's about a constitutional lawyer who dies and goes to heaven. There, he meets God and gets his questions answered about life. One of his questions is, "God, will this problem between Quebec and the rest of Canada ever be resolved?'' And God thinks very deeply about this, as God is wont to do. God replies, "Yes, but not in my lifetime.''

I'm glad to see you weren't offended by that. I've had the odd religious person who's been offended. I always tell them, "Don't be offended. The joke can't be taken seriously theologically. It is, after all, about a lawyer who goes to heaven.''

In any case. My apologies to Eugene Meyer of the Federalist Society.

Second, the civics, Canada's civics.

On the surface, you can make a comparison between our political system and yours. We have an executive, we have two legislative houses, and we have a Supreme Court.

However, our executive is the Queen, who doesn't live here. Her representative is the Governor General, who is an appointed buddy of the Prime Minister.

Of our two legislative houses, the Senate, our upper house, is appointed, also by the Prime Minister, where he puts buddies, fundraisers and the like. So the Senate also is not very important in our political system.

And we have a Supreme Court, like yours, which, since we put a charter of rights in our constitution in 1982, is becoming increasingly arbitrary and important. It is also appointed by the Prime Minister. Unlike your Supreme Court, we have no ratification process.

So if you sort of remove three of the four elements, what you see is a system of checks and balances which quickly becomes a system that's described as unpaid checks and political imbalances.
What we have is the House of Commons. The House of Commons, the bastion of the Prime Minister's power, the body that selects the Prime Minister, is an elected body. I really emphasize this to you as an American group: It's not like your House of Representatives. Don't make that comparison.

What the House of Commons is really like is the United States electoral college. Imagine if the electoral college which selects your president once every four years were to continue sitting in Washington for the next four years. And imagine its having the same vote on every issue. That is how our political system operates.

In our election last Monday, the Liberal party won a majority of seats. The four opposition parties divided up the rest, with some very, very rough parity.

But the important thing to know is that this is how it will be until the Prime Minister calls the next election. The same majority vote on every issue. So if you ask me, "What's the vote going to be on gun control?'' or on the budget, we know already.

If any member of these political parties votes differently from his party on a particular issue, well, that will be national headline news. It's really hard to believe. If any one member votes differently, it will be national headline news. I voted differently at least once from my party, and it was national headline news. It's a very different system.

Our party system consists today of five parties. There was a remark made yesterday at your youth conference about the fact that parties come and go in Canada every year. This is rather deceptive. I've written considerably on this subject.

We had a two-party system from the founding of our country, in 1867. That two-party system began to break up in the period from 1911 to 1935. Ever since then, five political elements have come and gone. We've always had at least three parties. But even when parties come back, they're not really new. They're just an older party re-appearing under a different name and different circumstances.
Let me take a conventional look at these five parties. I'll describe them in terms that fit your own party system, the left/right kind of terms.

Let's take the New Democratic Party, the NDP, which won 21 seats. The NDP could be described as basically a party of liberal Democrats, but it's actually worse than that, I have to say. And forgive me jesting again, but the NDP is kind of proof that the Devil lives and interferes in the affairs of men.

This party believes not just in large government and in massive redistributive programs, it's explicitly socialist. On social value issues, it believes the opposite on just about everything that anybody in this room believes. I think that's a pretty safe bet on all social-value kinds of questions.

Some people point out that there is a small element of clergy in the NDP. Yes, this is true. But these are clergy who, while very committed to the church, believe that it made a historic error in adopting Christian theology.

The NDP is also explicitly a branch of the Canadian Labour Congress, which is by far our largest labour group, and explicitly radical.

There are some moderate and conservative labour organizations. They don't belong to that particular organization.

The second party, the Liberal party, is by far the largest party. It won the election. It's also the only party that's competitive in all parts of the country. The Liberal party is our dominant party today, and has been for 100 years. It's governed almost all of the last hundred years, probably about 75 per cent of the time.

It's not what you would call conservative Democrat; I think that's a disappearing kind of breed. But it's certainly moderate Democrat, a type of Clinton-pragmatic Democrat. It's moved in the last few years very much to the right on fiscal and economic concerns, but still believes in government intrusion in the economy where possible, and does, in its majority, believe in fairly liberal social values.

In the last Parliament, it enacted comprehensive gun control, well beyond, I think, anything you have. Now we'll have a national firearms registration system, including all shotguns and rifles. Many other kinds of weapons have been banned. It believes in gay rights, although it's fairly cautious. It's put sexual orientation in the Human Rights Act and will let the courts do the rest.

There is an important caveat to its liberal social values. For historic reasons that I won't get into, the Liberal party gets the votes of most Catholics in the country, including many practising Catholics. It does have a significant Catholic, social-conservative element which occasionally disagrees with these kinds of policy directions. Although I caution you that even this Catholic social conservative element in the Liberal party is often quite liberal on economic issues.

Then there is the Progressive Conservative party, the PC party, which won only 20 seats. Now, the term Progressive Conservative will immediately raise suspicions in all of your minds. It should. It's obviously kind of an oxymoron. But actually, its origin is not progressive in the modern sense. The origin of the term "progressive'' in the name stems from the Progressive Movement in the 1920s, which was similar to that in your own country.

But the Progressive Conservative is very definitely liberal Republican. These are people who are moderately conservative on economic matters, and in the past have been moderately liberal, even sometimes quite liberal on social policy matters.

In fact, before the Reform Party really became a force in the late '80s, early '90s, the leadership of the Conservative party was running the largest deficits in Canadian history. They were in favour of gay rights officially, officially for abortion on demand. Officially -- what else can I say about them? Officially for the entrenchment of our universal, collectivized, health-care system and multicultural policies in the constitution of the country.

At the leadership level anyway, this was a pretty liberal group. This explains one of the reasons why the Reform party has become such a power.

The Reform party is much closer to what you would call conservative Republican, which I'll get to in a minute.
The Bloc Quebecois, which I won't spend much time on, is a strictly Quebec party, strictly among the French-speaking people of Quebec. It is an ethnic separatist party that seeks to make Quebec an independent, sovereign nation.

By and large, the Bloc Quebecois is centre-left in its approach. However, it is primarily an ethnic coalition. It's always had diverse elements. It does have an element that is more on the right of the political spectrum, but that's definitely a minority element.

Let me say a little bit about the Reform party because I want you to be very clear on what the Reform party is and is not.

The Reform party, although described by many of its members, and most of the media, as conservative, and conservative in the American sense, actually describes itself as populist. And that's the term its leader, Preston Manning, uses.

This term is not without significance. The Reform party does stand for direct democracy, which of course many American conservatives do, but also it sees itself as coming from a long tradition of populist parties of Western Canada, not all of which have been conservative.

It also is populist in the very real sense, if I can make American analogies to it -- populist in the sense that the term is sometimes used with Ross Perot.

The Reform party is very much a leader-driven party. It's much more a real party than Mr. Perot's party -- by the way, it existed before Mr. Perot's party. But it's very much leader-driven, very much organized as a personal political vehicle. Although it has much more of a real organization than Mr. Perot does.

But the Reform party only exists federally. It doesn't exist at the provincial level here in Canada. It really exists only because Mr. Manning is pursuing the position of prime minister. It doesn't have a broader political mandate than that yet. Most of its members feel it should, and, in their minds, actually it does.

It also has some Buchananist tendencies. I know there are probably many admirers of Mr. Buchanan here, but I mean that in the sense that there are some anti-market elements in the Reform Party. So far, they haven't been that important, because Mr. Manning is, himself, a fairly orthodox economic conservative.

The predecessor of the Reform party, the Social Credit party, was very much like this. Believing in funny money and control of banking, and a whole bunch of fairly non-conservative economic things.
So there are some non-conservative tendencies in the Reform party, but, that said, the party is clearly the most economically conservative party in the country. It's the closest thing we have to a neo-conservative party in that sense.

It's also the most conservative socially, but it's not a theocon party, to use the term. The Reform party does favour the use of referendums and free votes in Parliament on moral issues and social issues.
The party is led by Preston Manning, who is a committed, evangelical Christian. And the party in recent years has made some reference to family values and to family priorities. It has some policies that are definitely social-conservative, but it's not explicitly so.

Many members are not, the party officially is not, and, frankly, the party has had a great deal of trouble when it's tried to tackle those issues.

Last year, when we had the Liberal government putting the protection of sexual orientation in our Human Rights Act, the Reform Party was opposed to that, but made a terrible mess of the debate. In fact, discredited itself on that issue, not just with the conventional liberal media, but even with many social conservatives by the manner in which it mishandled that.

So the social conservative element exists. Mr. Manning is a Christian, as are most of the party's senior people. But it's not officially part of the party. The party hasn't quite come to terms with how that fits into it.

That's the conventional analysis of the party system.

Let me turn to the non-conventional analysis, because frankly, it's impossible, with just left/right terminology to explain why we would have five parties, or why we would have four parties on the conventional spectrum. Why not just two?

The reason is regional division, which you'll see if you carefully look at a map. Let me draw the United States comparison, a comparison with your history.

The party system that is developing here in Canada is a party system that replicates the antebellum period, the pre-Civil War period of the United States.

That's not to say -- and I would never be quoted as saying -- we're headed to a civil war. But we do have a major secession crisis, obviously of a very different nature than the secession crisis you had in the 1860s. But the dynamics, the political and partisan dynamics of this, are remarkably similar.
The Bloc Quebecois is equivalent to your Southern secessionists, Southern Democrats, states rights activists. The Bloc Quebecois, its 44 seats, come entirely from the province of Quebec. But even more strikingly, they come from ridings, or election districts, almost entirely populated by the descendants of the original European French settlers.

The Liberal party has 26 seats in Quebec. Most of these come from areas where there are heavy concentrations of English, aboriginal or ethnic votes. So the Bloc Quebecois is very much an ethnic party, but it's also a secession party.

In the referendum two years ago, the secessionists won 49 per cent of the vote, 49.5 per cent. So this is a very real crisis. We're looking at another referendum before the turn of the century.

The Progressive Conservative party is very much comparable to the Whigs of the 1850s and 1860s. What is happening to them is very similar to the Whigs. A moderate conservative party, increasingly under stress because of the secession movement, on the one hand, and the reaction to that movement from harder line English Canadians on the other hand.

You may recall that the Whigs, in their dying days, went through a series of metamorphoses. They ended up as what was called the Unionist movement that won some of the border states in your 1860 election.

If you look at the surviving PC support, it's very much concentrated in Atlantic Canada, in the provinces to the east of Quebec. These are very much equivalent to the United States border states. They're weak economically. They have very grim prospects if Quebec separates. These people want a solution at almost any cost. And some of the solutions they propose would be exactly that.
They also have a small percentage of seats in Quebec. These are French-speaking areas that are also more moderate and very concerned about what would happen in a secession crisis.

The Liberal party is very much your northern Democrat, or mainstream Democratic party, a party that is less concessionary to the secessionists than the PCs, but still somewhat concessionary. And they still occupy the mainstream of public opinion in Ontario, which is the big and powerful province, politically and economically, alongside Quebec.

The Reform party is very much a modern manifestation of the Republican movement in Western Canada; the U.S. Republicans started in the western United States. The Reform Party is very resistant to the agenda and the demands of the secessionists, and on a very deep philosophical level.

The goal of the secessionists is to transform our country into two nations, either into two explicitly sovereign countries, or in the case of weaker separatists, into some kind of federation of two equal partners.

The Reform party opposes this on all kinds of grounds, but most important, Reformers are highly resistant philosophically to the idea that we will have an open, modern, multi-ethnic society on one side of the line, and the other society will run on some set of ethnic-special-status principles. This is completely unacceptable, particularly to philosophical conservatives in the Reform party.

The Reform party's strength comes almost entirely from the West. It's become the dominant political force in Western Canada. And it is getting a substantial vote in Ontario. Twenty per cent of the vote in the last two elections. But it has not yet broken through in terms of the number of seats won in Ontario.

This is a very real political spectrum, lining up from the Bloc to reform. You may notice I didn't mention the New Democratic Party. The NDP obviously can't be compared to anything pre-Civil War. But the NDP is not an important player on this issue. Its views are somewhere between the liberals and conservatives. Its main concern, of course, is simply the left-wing agenda to basically disintegrate our society in all kinds of spectrums. So it really doesn't fit in.

But I don't use this comparison of the pre-Civil War lightly. Preston Manning, the leader of the Reform party has spent a lot of time reading about pre-Civil War politics. He compares the Reform party himself to the Republican party of that period. He is very well-read on Abraham Lincoln and a keen follower and admirer of Lincoln.

I know Mr. Manning very well. I would say that next to his own father, who is a prominent Western Canadian politician, Abraham Lincoln has probably had more effect on Mr. Manning's political philosophy than any individual politician.

Obviously, the issue here is not slavery, but the appeasement of ethnic nationalism. For years, we've had this Quebec separatist movement. For years, we elected Quebec prime ministers to deal with that, Quebec prime ministers who were committed federalists who would lead us out of the wilderness. For years, we have given concessions of various kinds of the province of Quebec, political and economic, to make them happier.

This has not worked. The sovereignty movement has continued to rise in prominence. And its demands have continued to increase. It began to hit the wall when what are called the soft separatists and the conventional political establishment got together to put in the constitution something called "a distinct society clause.'' Nobody really knows what it would mean, but it would give the Supreme Court, where Quebec would have a tremendous role in appointment, the power to interpret Quebec's special needs and powers, undefined elsewhere.

This has led to a firewall of resistance across the country. It fuelled the growth of the Reform party. I should even say that the early concessionary people, like Pierre Trudeau, have come out against this. So there's even now an element of the Quebec federalists themselves who will no longer accept this.
So you see the syndrome we're in. The separatists continue to make demands. They're a powerful force. They continue to have the bulk of the Canadian political establishment on their side. The two traditional parties, the Liberals and PCs, are both led by Quebecers who favour concessionary strategies. The Reform party is a bastion of resistance to this tendency.

To give you an idea of how divided the country is, not just in Quebec but how divided the country is outside Quebec on this, we had a phenomenon five years ago. This is a real phenomenon; I don't know how much you heard about it.

The establishment came down with a constitutional package which they put to a national referendum. The package included distinct society status for Quebec and some other changes, including some that would just horrify you, putting universal Medicare in our constitution, and feminist rights, and a whole bunch of other things.

What was significant about this was that this constitutional proposal was supported by the entire Canadian political establishment. By all of the major media. By the three largest traditional parties, the PC, Liberal party and NDP. At the time, the Bloc and Reform were very small.

It was supported by big business, very vocally by all of the major CEOs of the country. The leading labour unions all supported it. Complete consensus. And most academics.

And it was defeated. It literally lost the national referendum against a rag-tag opposition consisting of a few dissident conservatives and a few dissident socialists.

This gives you some idea of the split that's taking place in the country.
Canada is, however, a troubled country politically, not socially. This is a country that we like to say works in practice but not in theory.

You can walk around this country without running across very many of these political controversies.
I'll end there and take any of your questions. But let me conclude by saying, good luck in your own battles. Let me just remind you of something that's been talked about here. As long as there are exams, there will always be prayer in schools.