Family Tree of Vincent Van Gogh

His dizzy aunt ----------------------------------- -- Verti Gogh

The brother who ate prunes ---------------------------- Gotta Gogh

The brother who worked at a convenience store ----- Stop N Gogh

The grandfather from Yugoslavia -----------------------------U Gogh

His magician uncle ----------------------------------Where-diddy Gogh

His Mexican cousin -------------------------------------- -- A Mee Gogh

The Mexican cousin's American half-brother ---- Gring Gogh

The nephew who drove a stagecoach ---------- Wells-far Gogh

The constipated uncle ---------------------------------Can't Gogh

The ballroom dancing aunt ----------------------Tang Gogh

The bird lover uncle ------------------------------ Flamin Gogh

An aunt who taught positive thinking ------------- -- Way-to-Gogh

The little bouncy nephew --------------------------------- -- Poe Gogh

A sister who loved disco ---------------------------------- -- Go Gogh

The brother with low back pain -------------------- --Lum Bay Gogh

And his niece who travels the country in an RV --Winnie Bay Gogh

I saw you smiling. . .. there ya Gogh

Hindsight is 20/20?

Confirmation Bias refers to a tendency to look out only for information which supports our earlier beliefs or opinions about anything. Hindsight bias, also known as the knew-it-all-along phenomenon or creeping determinism, refers to the common tendency for people to perceive events that have already occurred as having been more predictable than they actually were before the events took place. So what exactly causes this bias to happen?

Researchers suggest that three key variables interact to contribute to this tendency to see things as more predictable than they really are.

First, people tend to distort or even misremember their earlier predictions about an event. As we look back on our earlier predictions, we tend to believe that we really did know the answer all along.

Second, people have a tendency to view events as inevitable. When assessing something that has happened, we tend to assume that it was something that was simply bound to occur.

Finally, people also tend to assume that they could have foreseen certain events.

When all three of these factors occur readily in a situation, the hindsight bias is more likely to occur. When a movie reaches its end and we discover who the killer really was, we might look back on our memory of the film and misremember our initial impressions of the guilty character. We might also look at all the situations and secondary characters and believe that given these variables, it was clear what was going to happen. You might walk away from the film thinking that you knew it all along, but the reality is that you probably didn't.

So, is there anything that you can do to counteract the hindsight bias?


Researchers Roese and Vohs suggest that one way to counteract this bias is to consider things that might have happened but didn't. By mentally reviewing potential outcomes, people might gain a more balanced view of what really happened.

Given the above, some of us still believe that only in hindsight, will the miracles become obvious, that we will see we were guided, and we knew there was order all along?

"Otherwise," as I once said, a long, long time ago, "it would all be too easy...

Do you dream>

Having a dream is awesome. Here are a few quotes about the importance of dreaming;

“Nothing happens unless first a dream.” -Carl Sandburg

“The future belongs to those who believe in the beauty of their dreams.” -Eleanor Roosevelt

“Cherish your visions and your dreams as they are the children of your soul, the blueprints of your ultimate achievements.” -Napoleon Hill

“Reach high, for stars lie hidden in your soul. Dream deep, for every dream, proceeds the goal." -Pamela Vaull Star

“Without dreams, there can be no courage. And without courage, there can be no action.” -Wim Winders

“Dreams are renewable. No matter what our age or condition, there are still untapped possibilities within us and new beauty waiting to be born." -Dale Turner

According to a recent article in Medical News Today, there are several theories about why we dream. Possible explanations of dreams include:

·        representing unconscious desires and wishes

·        interpreting random signals from the brain and body during sleep

·        consolidating and processing information gathered during the day

·        working as a form of psychotherapy

·        From the evidence and new research methodologies, researchers have speculated that dreaming serves the following functions:

o   offline memory reprocessing, in which the brain consolidates learning and memory tasks and supports and records waking consciousness

o   preparing for possible future threats

o   cognitive simulation of real-life experiences, as dreaming is a subsystem of the waking default network, the part of the mind active during daydreaming

o   helping develop cognitive capabilities

o   reflecting unconscious mental function in a psychoanalytic way

·       a unique state of consciousness that incorporates the experience of the present, processing of the past, and preparation for the future

·        a psychological space where overwhelming, contradictory, or highly complex notions can be brought together by the dreaming ego, notions that would be unsettling while awake, serving the need for psychological balance and equilibrium

Much that remains unknown about dreams. They are by nature difficult to study, but technology and new research techniques may help improve our understanding of dreams.

No matter why we dream, having a dream and showing up every day, even when nothing seems to be happening, is priceless.

But having a dream and showing up every day, while sauntering, winking, and hugging everyone, is when the floodgates begin to tremble and, in that process, perhaps dreams do come true.

Do you have any biases? 2

 03 Authority bias

Airline pilots wear smart uniforms for a reason. Not because they belong to a military order. They don’t. But because they want to imply authority. This is great for controlling passengers. They obey. The problem is, so do co-pilots. The writer Malcolm Gladwell in his book Outliers suggest the Korean Air flight 801 crashed because the co-pilot was too reticent to challenge the pilot about his decisions. Post-crash, British investigators demanded the airline “promote a freer atmosphere between the captain and the first officer” to permit questioning. The air of authority can dupe the best of us. A flash of military insignia, or sharp suit, can short-circuit our normal capacity for analysis.

04 Conservatism bias

It’s a misconception that the right approach to risk is solely to minimize it. Risk is a vital and necessary part of life. Conservatism bias is what happens when this is not well-understood Conservatism bias is why Blockbuster video turned down the acquisition of Netflix for $50 million. The management found it easier to do nothing than embrace risk.

05 Triviality law

It’s exhausting to think about complex issues. Given half a chance, the human mind will make a break for a simpler, trivial issue to distract itself. Politics is dominated by this effect. Major issues, such as a politician’s view on the national debt, are rarely discussed or reported. Too hard. Instead, the focus is on trivial issues, such as whether they can eat a bacon sandwich with dignity. This is a serious issue in risk. It takes effort to get people to think about critical issues. Given the chance they’ll veer off and focus on something fluffy and trivial, to spare their grey cells.

06 Risk compensation

The British Medical Journal recently came out against bicycle helmets. It’s not that helmets don’t work. Fall off and you’ll be grateful your fragile skull is encased in protective plastic. Rather, the phenomenon of risk compensation negates the benefit. Data from multiple nations shows that when cyclists feel safer, they compensate, by taking extra risks, cutting in front of cars and not looking at junctions. Individuals with documented helmet use had 2.2 times the odds of non–helmet users of being involved in an injury-related accident. Furthermore, mandatory helmet wearing reduced cycling, adding to negative effects.

07 Social proof

There is a beguiling power of effects such as social proof. Do you remember some years ago when one oil company bought a fertilizer company, and every other major oil company practically ran out and bought a fertilizer company? And there was no more damned reason for all these oil companies to buy fertilizer companies, but they didn’t know exactly what to do and if Exxon was doing it, it was good enough for Mobil, and vice versa. If someone in authority is doing or saying it you have a social proof and will consider whatever it is acceptable.

08 Charm pricing

Human reaction to numbers is riddled with quirks. Discount stores use charm pricing, knocking a penny off to end in “99”. When I worked in retail many years ago, we knew the value of having a price ending in 99. In an informal survey 50% of consumers when asked saw prices ending in 99 cents as more value for money, while the remainder saw prices as higher. Charm prices were 9 percent more likely to be seen as good value than the rounded prices. A disproportionately large improvement for a 1 percent price drop.

09 Overconfidence bias

There is an idea that dim people overestimate their skills, while bright people doubt their abilities. But could it be that even experts are overconfident? Alas yes, especially when forecasting. Economist Philip Tetlock spent 20 years studying forecasts by experts about the economy, stock markets, wars and other issues. He found the average expert did as well as random guessing or as he put it “as a dart-throwing chimpanzee

If you have been taken aback when you observed that someone was “assuming the worst intentions of others and have struggled to understand how someone could create in their mind such a different narrative of past events, despite seeing the same evidence. that you had seen. Hopefully, this will explain some of why people do what they d